Econ Cycle Lab

June 2025 Business Cycle Update

U.S. Economic Update – June 2025

In June, the U.S. economy showed clear signs of renewed momentum, supported by solid growth, steady inflation, and a resilient labor market. The key indicators were as follows:

• Consumer Price Index (CPI): Prices rose 0.3% MoM, the fastest increase in five months.
• Core PCE Price Index: The Fed’s preferred inflation measure advanced 0.3% MoM, up from 0.2% in May.
• GDP Growth Rate: After a weak first quarter, the economy rebounded with +3.0% annualized growth in Q2.
• Unemployment Rate: Declined to 4.1%, down from 4.2% in May, reflecting ongoing labor strength.
• Non-Farm Payrolls: Employment expanded by 147K jobs, beating forecasts of 110K, though at the slowest pace in four months.
• ISM Services PMI: Returned to expansion at 50.8, driven by stronger demand and business activity.
• ISM Manufacturing PMI: Improved slightly to 49.0, but remained in contraction territory.
• Business Confidence (NFIB Index): Softened to 98.6, indicating more cautious small-business sentiment despite stable consumer demand.

AI Model Assessment

Our AI model’s analysis of these indicators suggests that the U.S. economy was in Stage 3 – Mid Expansion during June 2025. This stage is typically marked by strengthening output after a slowdown, controlled inflation, and resilient employment, with services leading the recovery while manufacturing remains relatively weaker.

Additional Detail & Methodology

Disclaimer: This extended section is for educational and research purposes only and is not investment advice.

Overview of the June 2025 Business Cycle

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Key Economic Indicators (Extended Notes)

• GDP Growth: ...
• Inflation: ...
• Unemployment: ...
• Interest Rates: ...
• Yield Curve: ...

Stage of the Cycle According to EconCycleLab

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